Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,770,165$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,757,657.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,757,657.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $103,776$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,671.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,249,928$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,681$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,008.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(93,008.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,159$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(495 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,234.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,234.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,005$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,018$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,124.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(13,124.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $330$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(31.2 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(336.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,274$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,512$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,436.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 69.7)}}\) (asimptote \(153,436.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,779$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(259 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,274.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 61.2)}}\) (asimptote \(17,274.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,486$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,908$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,480.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(20,480.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $498$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(80.6 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{485.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(485.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,853$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,094$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(89.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,385.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 79.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,385.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $201$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(16.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{284.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 52.7)}}\) (asimptote \(284.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,357$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,025$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,954.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,954.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(17.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(82.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $147$ on 2020-05-30
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,395$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(55.8 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,884.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,884.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46$ on 2020-05-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.66 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(127.8\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,318$ on 2020-05-30
